Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
